Critics might argue I am painting a bleak picture of the future. They are right. But this vision rests on assertions that are difficult to refute. Let us review them:
- The AI we know today is still a tool, but the stated goal of leading companies is to create an artificial general intelligence (AGI). This will manifest as agents capable of performing every task humans can do—knowledge work first, but soon, thanks to robotics, manual labor too.
- Most AI researchers agree we will reach AGI around 2030—roughly five years from now. Others predict 2035 or 2045, which still gives us only 10 or 20 years.
- Human economic value will then drop to zero or below; we will become obsolete.
- Corporations aim to maximize profit. Driven by competition, the replacement of humans by faster, cheaper, and more efficient AI agents becomes inevitable.
- With the incentives supporting the population's well-being gone, it is unlikely the powerful will take care of us out of the kindness of their hearts.
- Even if AI-holding nations (the US and China) implemented Universal Basic Income (UBI), other countries—ravaged by the revolution but lacking the infrastructure—would be left behind to plunge into destitution.
Canada will not be spared. Even though pivotal research leading to Large Language Models (LLMs) was conducted here, we possess neither state-of-the-art systems nor sovereign AI infrastructure. We will be at the mercy of American or Chinese powers, just like every other nation.
There will be revolts, strikes, perhaps even attempted revolutions. But these are tools of the old world; using them will be like going to war with pea shooters. Mass uprisings are only effective when citizens possess leverage. That leverage relies either on economic value (strikes stop production) or strength in numbers—a threat to the physical safety of the ruling class, who generally prefer keeping their heads attached to their shoulders. However, with the accelerating deployment of AI and robotics in the military and police (already underway in the US with Project Stargate and the Replicator initiative), the threat of numbers will become a relic. Étienne de La Boétie's precept—that it is we, the people, who confer power upon the tyrant and can therefore take it back—will be rendered null and void.
Those seriously analyzing AI-driven economic disruption sometimes propose solutions to avoid this nightmare scenario. Drago and Laine (drawing on Vitalik Buterin, creator of Ethereum) suggest building decentralized AI systems and robotics. Emad Mostaque proposes completely rethinking the global monetary system to create two currencies: one generated not by debt, but by the sheer fact of being human. In Mostaque's ideal scenario (and he is no idealist; he deems catastrophic outcomes highly probable), human value would be preserved, and everyone would possess a personal AI to act on their behalf.
These are interesting avenues for reflection. I will not delve deeper here; my primary goal is to diagnose the problem. We must wake up and realize the danger. Only then can we work together to find solutions.
Whether optimists or pessimists, all experts agree: the world will be transformed. Humans learn by experience; we understand continuity, but we are ill-equipped to grasp disruption. Yet we must grasp this coming discontinuity. Once the machine is in motion, we will lose any chance to stop or steer it.